Dow, S&P 500 notch records as Wall Street shrugs at shutdown, amps up rate cut bets

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) advanced on Wednesday to its first record close above 6,700 as investors shifted their focus from the first government shutdown in seven years to a weak labor market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained nearly 0.1% to post its second all-time high close in a row this week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) increased 0.4%, just a stone’s throw away from its own record.

Private ADP jobs data released this morning showed a further weakening of the labor market, all but cementing investor bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next policy meeting later this month.

Gold (GC=F) futures climbed to record highs on Wednesday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid a government shutdown.

Futures for the precious metal surged past $3,900 per troy ounce before paring gains.

Silver futures (SI=F) also gained on Wednesday after rising 29% last quarter. Precious metals have outperformed this year amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and pressure on the US dollar.

Intel (INTC) stock popped 6% on Wednesday after a Semafor report said the chip maker is in early stage talks to bring AMD (AMD) on as a customer for its foundry business.

It is not clear how much of AMD’s chip business would be manufactured by Intel, should a deal materialize.

AMD designs its processors, but currently relies primarily on Taiwan-based TSMC for production

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Conagra Brands (CAG) stock moved 3% higher on Wednesday after the snack and packaged foods producer slightly beat Wall Street’s low expectations, boosted by refrigerated and frozen segments.

Still, the company posted lower revenue and profit year over year as Americans continue to pull back from buying snacks. Revenue declined by 5.8% to $2.63 billion, while adjusted earnings per share declined by 26.4% to $0.39. Both were slightly higher than the Street forecast, per Bloomberg data.

The company reiterated its fiscal 2026 guidance and expects organic net sales to be down 1% to up 1% from fiscal 2025. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $1.70 to $1.85.

“The consumer is certainly not out of the woods yet,” CEO Sean Connolly told investors on the earnings call. “We’re still seeing value-seeking behavior. We still have to deal with inflation and tariffs.”

CFO David Marberger said the company is seeing inflation pressure this quarter for proteins like “beef, pork, turkey, and then, to some extent, eggs.” He added that the company still expects a 3% impact on inflation from tariffs this year.

Volume growth overall fell 1.2%, less than the 1.45% drop Wall Street expected. Refrigerated and frozen volume returned to growth, up 0.5%, for the first time since the fall of last year, driven higher by refrigerated whipped toppings, pudding, canned tomatoes, hot dogs, frozen meals, and desserts.

Its protein snacks — with items like the Slim Jim meat snacks — are also seeing momentum.

“Slim Jim right now is tracking really well,” Connolly said. “That’s a very positive sign.”

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Ford shares rose more than 1% in midday trading.

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Investors on Wednesday were pricing in 100% chances of the Federal Reserve easing interest rates at its next policy meeting in October, according to CME Group.

During the previous trading session, investors were betting on roughly 96% odds of a rate cut from the central bank.

The greater confidence in the Fed’s next move followed the release of weaker-than-anticipated private employment data. The latest data from ADP on Wednesday showed US private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, while economists had expected those employers to add 51,000 jobs.

Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors bought the safety of US bonds amid the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.

The 10-year yield (^TNX) fell nearly four basis points to 4.11%, while the 30-year yield (^TYX) dipped three basis points to 4.7%, before both rebounded slightly.

The government shutdown that began Wednesday has clouded the Federal Reserve’s path to interest rate cuts with uncertainty, delaying the release of a key report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The bureau’s monthly report that had been slated for release Friday shows the unemployment rate and number of new jobs created during the previous month, and it is closely watched by investors and policymakers to gauge the health of the US economy.

Meta (META) shares fell nearly 3% Wednesday morning, extending a recent downturn in the stock. Shares dropped 1.2% during the previous trading session and have fallen more than 9% from record high of $790 in August.

On Tuesday, Nvidia-backed (NVDA) data center operator CoreWeave (CRWV) reported signing a $14 billion deal with Meta for the Instagram parent company to access its supply of Nvidia’s new Blackwell AI server systems. The move raised questions among some analysts about why Meta would rent access to Nvidia’s chips rather than buying them for its own data centers.

Meta on Tuesday also announced that it plans to acquire Rivos, a chip startup founded by former Google (GOOG) and Intel (INTC) executives and chaired by Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan. The move could boost Meta’s own in-house chip efforts as Nvidia’s Big Tech customers — most notable Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) — have worked to expand their custom chip offerings.

In other news, Meta said Wednesday it will recommend ads to users based on their AI chats starting in December.

Other Mag 7 shares traded mixed Wednesday. Google and Microsoft fell around 1%, while Nvidia and Apple (AAPL) rose fractionally. Tesla (TSLA) gained 3%.

Reddit (RDDT) stock fell as much as 8% in early trading Wednesday, extending a 5% decline from the previous trading session amid new data that showed the use of its content in leading AI chatbot ChatGPT had plummeted in mid-September.

Reddit content was cited in just 2% of ChatGPT responses on Tuesday, much lower than the 9.7% of ChatGPT responses that cited Reddit the same day last month, according to data from AI search engine tracker Promptwatch. At its peak in September, Reddit was cited in more than 14% of ChatGPT answers.

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US stocks pulled back on Wednesday at the open.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led losses, dropping around 0.4%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell around 0.1%.

The declines come after the US government began its first shutdown in almost seven years and an ADP report showed private payrolls unexpectedly declined in September.